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Comments from Forecasters on the Contribution of NOAA
Profiler Network (NPN) Data to Operational Forecasting
"During most severe weather events over the central U.S., the NPN provides indispensable
and timely information on wind shear and jet characteristics. NPN data is far more
accurate, reliable, and detailed than wind data provided from the WSR-88D VWP, RAOBS,
or ACARS. SPC forecasters use these data sources daily and I would consider WPN
data to be a critical component in accurate SPC forecasts. I can think of no
better example of the importance of the WPN than the recent May 3rd tornado
outbreak over Oklahoma and Kansas. The data from the Tucumcari, NM profiler
(among others) was outstanding and clearly showed upper level winds increasing
in speed and descending in height as the day progressed. The profiler data was
critical to several decisions made that day and resulted in not only a strongly
worded DAY 1 Moderate Risk, but the later upgrade to High Risk."
Greg Carbin, SPC, Norman, OK
"... the computer models failed miserably with this event and it was the
observational data from the profilers that tipped the scales toward a
successful forecast. What had begun as a fairly low risk for severe storms
suddenly escalated to an extremely dangerous situation. Fortunately,
staff at the Storm Prediction Center, WFO Norman, Oklahoma and forecasters
for VORTEX99 had used the profiler data early in the analysis cycle and
realized the gravity of the situation. If they had trusted model forecasts
they would have badly under-forecast a major tornado outbreak with possibly
much greater loss of life. Only the profiler network allowed proper
diagnosis of the gravity of the situation."
Jim Johnson, FIC, WFO Dodge City, KS
From Dr. Morris Weisman’s* testimony before the House
Subcommittee on Basic Research, Committee on Science, June 16, 1999.
“… in order to anticipate the potential severity of the events on 3 May, a forecaster
had to… carefully monitor the evolving vertical profiles of winds over the region
of concern. This can be accomplished to some degree by monitoring the wind profiles
at the widely scattered NWS radiosonde sites…, by monitoring the evolving wind field
at relatively course resolution using operational forecast models,... or by monitoring
the evolving winds at much better time and space resolution using (data from the
NOAA Profiler Network).”
"This profiler network was especially critical on 3 May for monitoring the progression
of a jet stream feature .... which alerted forecasters to the increasing potential for
very severe storms that afternoon. Such an evolution was not anticipated using the
more standard observing and modeling systems."
"What this network offers us is unprecedented observations of the wind structure in
the atmosphere in time and space scales that we could never see before. No other
observing system picked up on this feature with such accuracy in timing.”
For more information about the tornado outbreak of 1999 visit the
National Weather Service's Southern Region Web Site.
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